Happy Hump Day. Let this be a mid-week check in. How are you doing? It’s okay to be unsure, because most things signs point to being unsure anyways.

• From Canada’s job reports where they “surprisingly” added over 80,000 jobs but 70,000 of them were part-time from the summer hiring blitz.

• The TSX hit a record high on Monday, but nearly two-thirds of Canadians want interest rates cut due to financial anxiety.

Where do you fit in here?

• In more updates, the loonie dipped slightly falling the latest CPI reports Tuesday morning, but is still outperforming other countries currencies in the G10.

• Factory sales fell 0.9% in May on petroleum and machinery, which is the lowest level since January 2022.

• Saskatchewan reported a 4.4% increase in manufacturing sales.

CANADA

🇨🇦 TikTok attempts to save its Canadian operations

To many people, TikTok was the app of choice for killing time during the COVID pandemic, scrolling through the powerful algorithm until you got a TikTok telling you to take a break… which you then scrolled over to go to your next TikTok. These days, the app is fighting for its existence in Canada as the government has set out a path to force TikTok to shut down Canadian operations.

On Monday, it was revealed TikTok’s CEO requested an urgent meeting with Industry Minister Melanie Joly as far back as July 2nd to have an in-person meeting within two weeks to discuss the proposed shutdown.

In the letter, CEO Shou Chew noted that if the government goes through with the shutdown, TikTok will be forced to fire over 350 Canadians they employ, stop investing in Canada and cut off support for Canadian content creators. Last week, TikTok announced it was ending its art sponsorships in Canada, which include TIFF and the Juno Awards.

Chew calls Canada an outlier. In his letter, he notes that the decision was made at the same time the United States was considering banning the company, which they’re no longer doing. He says it was a different time with different circumstances that no longer exist, and was a decision by the previous Canadian government when they were still working in tandem with the United States. Canada would also be an outlier among the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing alliance if they moved forward with the order.

Rewind… Chew is correct in some of the circumstances. Canada launched its review in late 2023 and the decision was made in November 2024 to force TikTok to shut down its Canadian operations.

Fear not, scrollers, a wind down in Canadian operations doesn’t mean the app will disappear off the Canadian App Store and be unusable - but any economic activity will be eliminated if TikTok is forced to shut down.

Bottom line: While security was at the top of mind, some can argue that the Trudeau government was going along with the United States to stay consistent. A couple of weeks ago, TikTok revealed that they generated $2.3-billion in GDP for Canada’s economy in 2024 and 613,000 small-to-medium-sized businesses (SMB) utilized TikTok for their business. No matter how you slice it, Canada’s economy will feel a TikTok departure.

CANADA

🇨🇦 Canadian Headlines

🚫Carney loses access. An ethics “screen” will be in place to prevent Carney from making decisions that could benefit his former employer. The list of companies Carney was involved in previously is over 15 pages long, which means as PM, he’ll have to recuse himself from conversations that could create a conflict or issues of favouritism.

🚀Canada prepares for liftoff? For the first time ever, a Canadian space startup is preparing for liftoff with a rocket made entirely in Canada. NordSpace is preparing for its first test launch in August and hopes it’s the early stages of establishing Canada’s own space industry, with infrastructure, takeoffs and manufacturing happening domestically.

🇺🇸Tariffs are part of the deal. PM Carney tempered expectations, telling reporters he doesn’t believe there will be any trade deal without some sort of tariffs in place.

🐄US dairy industry demands change. The American dairy industry wants Canada to change things and wants it to be changed for their benefit. Dairy exporters in the US want Canada to rewrite their rules around who can import cheese, milk and other dairy products. Despite the demand from exporters and President Trump himself (who has, in the past, called the policies unfair), the government has no plans to make changes.

More stories:

• Ex-diplomats warn that Mark Carney’s proposed cuts, which include foreign affairs staff, will only affect Canada’s goal of growing and strengthening relationships abroad.

• Eastern Ontario, including Toronto and Ottawa, are battling air quality advisories, heat waves, or both as wildfire smoke blankets the region.

• Officials in Manitoba are banking on cooler, wetter weather and over 160 international firefighters joining the mix to fight the 122 active forest fires burning in the province.

• A hijacking incident caused delays at Vancouver International Airport and caused other planes to either divert or get stuck in a holding pattern. The suspect was caught after stealing a small plane from Victoria Flying Club and flying to Vancouver.

STAT

🦠 Measles takes over Alberta

Someone give Alberta a history lesson and let them know a perfectly safe and highly effective measles vaccine was found in the 1960s. The province’s total number of cases has surpassed the number of measles cases in the United States - with a population of about 335-million fewer people.

Alberta has been battling an outbreak of measles since March, and over the weekend reported a total case count of 1,314 cases. The United States as a whole has reported 1,288 cases this year. Health officials believe the true number is higher than what the confirmed numbers show.

Call it vaccine skepticism in the fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic, call it a lack of education - the measles was largely considered to be eradicated up until this point. The rate of spread is exponentially higher than Ontario’s outbreak, which began six months before Alberta’s. Now that the Calgary Stampede just wrapped up this past weekend, health officials in the province anticipate even more cases to come as the rate snowballs further.

NORTH AMERICA

Inflation heats up as the tariffs strike back

Tuesday was the day of truth - and reality is beginning to set in as the trade war drags on between the two biggest allies, Canada and the United States.

Canada’s inflation rate increased to 1.9%, up from 1.7% in May, as global trade wars have started to hit consumers where it hurts most: their wallets. Of the major components that make up the consumer price index (CPI), seven of them increased, whereas gasoline prices dropped even further from their levels in May. While the 1.9% doesn’t look bad on paper, and a 0.2% increase is considered “modest,” if you remove gasoline from the equation the CPI comes out to 2.7% in June. Are your eyebrows raised? Mine were. Core inflation, which is what the central bank looks for policy decision guidance, remains elevated at almost 3%.

If you were relying on a rate cut to lower some payments, don’t hold your breath. Economists predict the latest report shuts down the chances of a rate cut on July 30th and lowers the chance of a cut coming in September.

It’s not just Canada. The United States saw an even higher CPI, sitting at 2.7%, which is an increase from 2.4% in the month of May. The core inflation rose to 2.9%. In a bit of news that surely has everyone doing their best shocked Pikachu impression, anything that was manufactured outside the United States rose in price. Food prices increased by 3%, and while the egg crisis isn’t as bad as it was, a dozen eggs are still 27% more expensive than they were this time last year.

Bottom line: President Trump recently proclaimed that Americans would be willing to pay higher prices to put up with the trade war, but this is just the beginning. If President Trump moves forward with his flurry of tariffs after his August 1st deadline, which has seen over 20 letters go out to countries ranging from 25-35% tariff rates, further instability and trade conflict is bound to raise global inflation and begin spooking investors a bit more than they have been up to this point.

WORLD

🚨 More Headlines

🇺🇸Trump gets tough on Russia. President Trump has had enough of Vladimir Putin, giving him a 50-day deadline to complete a deal that ends the war in Ukraine. President Trump threatened new, “very severe” tariffs on Russia, and “secondary tariffs” of 100% on Russia’s trading partners if they continue to do business with the country in an attempt to isolate Russia from the global trading economy.

🇺🇦Trump commits NATO to Ukraine’s defence. Along with his threat to Russia, Trump has promised new weapons and defence systems for Ukraine - through NATO to avoid using taxpayer dollars - so Ukraine can defend itself. Ukraine has faced an onslaught of drone and missile attacks from Russia nightly as the war’s intensity has ramped up.

🏛️Supreme Court allows mass education firings. The Supreme Court handed Trump another win, allowing him to proceed with mass firings in education, which was previously blocked by a lower court.

🇪🇺EU threatens response to US tariffs. After Trump said the EU would have a 30% tariff on them starting August 1st, the EU accused Trump of resisting negotiations and threatened to slap back after resisting for the majority of the trade war.

❌Elmo hacked on X. First it was Grok melting down, then it was Elmo’s X account getting hacked and posting antisemitism and making comments regarding the Epstein case. The account has since been ‘secured.’

☕️Starbucks brings employees back to the office. In an attempt to get people back in their shops to buy $5 coffees, Starbucks has announced a return-to-office policy that will have employees in-person four days a week - or face a payout to give up their position.

🇨🇳China’s economy grows despite trade war. Despite constant tariff threats, China’s economy grew 1.1% from April to June. The growth is attributed to domestic investments and high-value projects such as high-speed rail and increased exports all over the world (which are then shipped through that country into the USA).

🏦 Numbers

• $200-million military deal. Days after referring to itself as “MechaHitler” and having a breakdown, the US military signed a $200-million deal with xAI to deploy AI tools for the Department of Defence.

• 600,000 tourists. During Bad Bunny’s 30-date run in Puerto Rico, the island’s tourism agency is expecting 600,000 visitors, which would be double the typical number.

NEWS

💭 ICYMI

• Joe Biden fired back at Republican claims that he was incapacitated at the end of his term and his aides were using an autopen without his authorization.

• Solar energy generation is booming, as The New Yorker reports 96% of demand for new energy globally comes from renewables such as solar and wind, and 93% in the United States.

• If you were to be unhappy about something regarding the car you drive, what do you think it’d most likely be? If you said tech, you’re wrong. It’s actually cup holders. The Stanley cup craze still lives on.

• India’s aviation regulators have ordered the inspection of fuel supply switches on all Boeing planes after last month’s crash that left 260 dead.

• Doctors allowed AI to control a surgery robot which performed gallbladder removal with 100% accuracy.

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